Land Run Farmers Cooperative

Ag Market Commentary

Alan Brugler - Barchart - Wed Aug 05, 12:27PM UTC

Corn prices moved 1 to 2 cents per bushel higher overnight as shorts took some money off the table. Corn futures faced sharp selling pressure on Tuesday, as front months were down 7 to 9 cents. Several new crop months posted contract lows. Barchart’s cmdty Yield Forecast for August is 174.8 bpa. That is up 1 bpa from the July forecast, but below USDA’s 178.5. Other firms are forecasting 180 to 183 bpa. The 7-day QPF shows precip hitting 1-1.5 inches in scattered parts of the Corn Belt, including good coverage in Iowa. The 8-14 day outlook shows higher chances for above normal temp and slightly above normal precip for the Eastern half of the US through mid-August. EIA will release the weekly ethanol production data later this morning. Official June export data will also be released.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans start the midweek session steady to 4 cents higher after closing in the red on Tuesday. Yesterday, front month soybean futures fell 11 to 14 3/4 cents/bu. In the rest of the complex, August meal was down $3.60, while Sep posted a new contract low. Aug soy oil slipped 12 points on the day. Board crush margins are still poor, but have climbed back above $1 thanks to the soy oil rally. Barchart’s August cmdty Yield Forecast is 49.2 bpa for soybeans. That was up 0.4 bpa from the July estimate. StoneX released a 54.2 bpa projection on Monday. USDA will give their first survey and satellite driven estimate a week from today. US and China trade reps reportedly plan to meet via video conference on August 15 to assess compliance by China on the Phase One deal. USDA will release the official June export data today.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat starts the Wednesday session with gains of 2 to 3 cents from overnight trading. Domestic wheat futures continued lower on Tuesday, led by the winter wheat contracts. CBT wheat fell 10 to 13 1/4 cents in the front months on the day, with KC losing 6 to 8 1/2 cents. MPLS was down 2 to 4 3/4 cents. Several KC and MPLS contracts posted new lows. Weakness in corn pressured the market lower. Japan’s MOA issued their weekly wheat tender, seeking 130,295 MT, with 66,050 MT as U.S. specific. Egypt’s GASC issued a tender for an unspecified amount of wheat for September delivery. Results are expected later today. Romania, often an Egyptian supplier, has a much smaller crop this year due to drought.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were down 22 to 75 cents on Tuesday. Feeder cattle futures were also lower, down 27 to 52 cents on the day. The August 3 CME Feeder Cattle index was $140.50, 70 cents higher on the day. In KS some light trading took place at $99 and at $100. The weekly FCE online cattle auction has 1,474 head listed so far. There are 336 heifers from OK, but the remaining cattle are from TX and KS. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed in the afternoon report, with the Chc/Sel spread narrowing by 47 cents to $13.79. Choice boxes were down by 42 cents on Tuesday, with Select boxes 5 cents higher. USDA estimated Monday’s FI cattle slaughter was back up on Tuesday at 119,000 head. That brought the WTD total to 232,000 head, down 4,000 wk/wk and 9,000 head from last year.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures posted a 20 cent loss in August on Tuesday, with other front months 52 to 72 cents higher. The July 31 CME Lean Hog index was $53.11, down by 41 cents. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price on Tuesday afternoon was not released due to packer submission issues. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was $1.28 lower in the PM report to $65.50. The butt primal was higher on the day, with the rest of the primals lower. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 474,000 head WTD through Tuesday. That is down 1,000 head from last week and even with a year ago.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Overnight trading in the cotton futures market has prices 6 to 9 points higher this morning. Cotton futures saw 9 to 41 point gains in most contacts on Tuesday. The dollar was weaker on the day. The Seam posted sales of 21,976 bales on Monday, with an average gross price of 57.25 cents/lb. That was the largest daily sale since Jan 17 of 2020 sold 27,433 bales. The 7-day QPF shows very little precip over the next week for much of the South. The Cotlook A index was back down by 50 points to 69.55 cents/lb. The AWP for cotton is 47.71 cents/lb, and the LDP is 4.29 cents/lb. Both are in effect through Thursday.

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

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